Blooming Aussie economy facing bearish threat as retail sales drop

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Blooming Aussie economy facing bearish threat as retail sales drop

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The Aussie dollar has been trading significantly higher against most of its major rivals from the very beginning of this month. Despite the strong bullish momentum in the AUDUSD pair, the pair dropped sharply during on last week after the retails sales missed the expected 0.2% gain. Most of the leading investors in the global market are overly concern regarding the strong rejection of the critical resistance level at 0.80658.If the pairs fail to break this current resistance level then this might be the initial top for this pair. However, the weak U.S unemployment claims data released erased most a significant portion of the loss in AUDUSD pair. Though FED has hiked their interest rate for two times in the year 2017 strong doubt prevails regarding their next projected rate hike. The average hourly income of the U.S citizen also dropped by 0.1% which clearly demonstrates the sluggish performance of the U.S economy. The Aussie bulls utilized the ongoing weakness of the U.S economy and posted a strong bullish run.

Interest rate hike decision

The RBA kept the interest rate unchanged (1.5%) despite their strong economic performance from the very beginning of this year. Moreover, RBA governor Lowe gave a dovish speech, stating that they are not ready to hike their interest rate since their economy is still in the recovery phase. Such a dovish statement from the RBA governor create an extensive bearish threat to the Aussie dollar but the weakness of the U.S dollar mitigated the effect in the global currency market. Though the U.S economy is struggling hard still there is a chance of another rate hike by the end of this year. Moreover, the U.S central bank will also pressurize the FED to hike their interest rate for the third time in the year 2017.But before that, the U.S central bank have to shrink their balance sheet to mitigate the impact of U.S rate hike decision. Considering all the factors both countries are struggling hard to come up with a stable solution.

Upcoming events

Most of the leading investors are waiting for the U.S unemployment claim data release which is scheduled on Thursday. If the data comes beats the expectation then the Aussie bulls will be wiped out from the market. However, a weak data release in the U.S unemployment claim section will fuel up the Aussie bulls which will clearly confirm the resumption of a medium-term bullish trend in the AUDUSD pair. On Thursday we have Employment Change data release for the Aussie economy and if it bears the expectation then the AUDUSD pair will try for another bullish run. But if the Australian Unemployment Rate exceeds the expected 5.6% gain then the bulls will be in great trouble. These two high-impact news release is going to play a major role in the upcoming movement of the AUDUSD pair in the forex trading industry.

The decent bullish rally of the AUDUSD pair is currently facing extensive bearish threat fundamentally since the retail sales data has missed the expectations of the Aussie economist. On the contrary, there has been a sharp decline in the Aussie trade balance which clearly demonstrates the sluggish performance. Though these two factors were supposed to create a sharp decline in the AUSDUSD pair the ongoing weak performance of the U.S economy is refueling the Aussie bulls. To be precise the price movement of the AUDUSD pair is greatly dependent on the U.S economy. If the U.S unemployment claims data refuels the green bucks then a sharp decline in the AUDUSD pair is imminent since the current stance of RBA is extremely dovish despite their long-term stable performance.

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