The Aussie has continued to be range bound with in the symmetrical triangle. Being rejected again for the second consecutive week, and forming a double rejection again on the weekly.
For three consecutive weeks now price has closed and opened with in a 20 pip range indicating indecision in the market. Being rejected from resistance as well as support. With the two last candles looking bearish I would suggest some more bearish action this coming week. However with the RBA meeting on Thursday the week will be another volatile one.
When will buyers give up that is the question?
Midweek price action started a sell off after another attempted to breakout to the upside. Failing at resistance and the day ending in a topside pin bar. Thursday selling continued and down another 60 pips, forming a daily engulfing candle. Buyers managed to take control after another move down on Friday. Price has been contained under resistance at .75960 seen on 4H chart.
.75565 .75180 .74777
Triangle support (S1) and (S2)( marked on chart)
At current price .75960 .76250 .76500
Triangle resistance marked on chart.
Some important data this week that will effect the Aussie this week which will induce another volatile week.
Early off we have Chinese manufacturing PMI, the past two releases has shown some improvement, if falls below 50 we are likely to see another Aussie sell off. This could only be temporary as its just two and half hours before the RBA cash rate decision.
The cash rate released at 2:30 pm and is forecast to remain on hold. I agree to this as CPI figures although still below RBA expectations showed some sign of improvement, even though being due to bad weather as analyzed on the CPI release . Traders will be looking at what is said in the statement as to which way price will go.
11:00 am on Wednesday we have building approvals and looking like the down trend in domestic housing will continue.
Thursday is another big news day with the Federal funds rate in the early hours of the morning. (4:30 am Central Australian time). This could be a game changer for the Aussie, and later in the day the AUD trade balance.
With the AUD/USD’s tightening range continuing lay a very crucial week ahead, and could be the week that decides the fate of the Aussies direction. Forex TFP will be looking for sell opportunities, but this week will be reliant on Fundamentals rather than technical.
Which ever way it goes remember to trade safe and use good money management in your trading. 🙂
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