The current eur/aud chart as of 9-10-16 is gearing up to explode with an inverse head and shoulders pattern set up. Ideally we need to wait for the break out and candle close above 1.49100 on a 4h chart.
After the ECB conference on the 8th of September Mario Draghi discussed the Euro economy and seems to a degree to be stabilizing but growth remains well under expectations, the speech with Q&A’s can be viewed here . EUR is still in a range resistance at 1.13 to 1.14 and support at around 1.10.
Australia’s economy remains quite lack luster and I still see it on a slow decline. On the charts price has been rejecting around the .77500 and .76200 area. Selling volume seems to be higher than the buying volume so I suspect sellers remain keener than buyers at current levels. All time frames have a very bearish outlook and we could possibly see .73 on the charts in the coming weeks.
Price has respected the daily trend resistance to the pip and the 4H has cut straight though the 200MA . I expect price to continue to the down side and rest on the Daily 200MA.
We could go long from the close of the 4H candle and or depending on how far above 1.49100 the move is, we could wait for a pull back. Waiting for a pull back to 1.49000 would give a better entry into the market and pose better risk reward ratio. Alternatively a close above 1.94100 on the daily would be a better option and fine tune the entry on the H1 or 15m chart.
Take profit should be about the height of the head which is around 350 to 400 pips , which would make TP around 1.52200 to 1.53600.
Stop loss should be below the right shoulder at 1.45600.
A fail to break past and we could see this pair stuck in its current range.
The 4H chart below .
Click on image to view in detail.
TRADE UPDATE 9-16
Current set up is still valid.
Things to watch for this current set up
The daily was rejected on the 200ma and expect a pull back to the break of the inverse head and shoulders neck line. If you missed the entry on this trade it will be the likely spot to either enter long or a reentry if profits were already taken at the 200ma.