We will start off with the Kiwi which is one of my favorite pairs.
With only 5 days left on the M1 chart, price has been rejected off the long term resistance level of .74590 back in February 2005. (see chart). We will wait and see how the rest of this week plays out and if the monthly candle finishes as a bearish pinbar we are likely to see a continuation of long term down trend. Volume does confirm that buyers lacked commitment towards the end of the past few months. This indicates sellers were waiting for entries. Current weekly and monthly price action does look to the downside.
A closer look on the weekly chart following the shooting star price has failed to make a higher high indicating buyers are loosing interest. However price seems to be stalling at current levels. This was a former support in December 2014 though to March 2015. Price is still technically in a weekly up trend and we need to see price under .70 before we can call the end of the trend.
Friday’s close at .72438 was below current 4H resistance and price has broken and closed below the current uptrend line. This is indicating a bearish out look for the week ahead. Price is resting on June’s resistance. As always we are looking at two possible scenarios for this week. We either wait for a pull back to trend line then sell or we sell at current price.
For a target we will be looking at the green rectangle .71600 and .71300. Sl should be above .73800.
For a longer term target I have my eye on the 200 SMA . A break of the .71300 level and we could be looking at price back to the .69000 level.
This pair is always full of surprises. With bearish fundamentals and a bearish technical out look at the start of last week, then just to end with a very bullish weekly candle. I don’t see too much upside potential with the Aussie but it does look likely to test .77230 resistance level. (see chart).
I would like to see a close below the 200 MA before going short again.
On the Monthly
Price has respected the monthly trend line for the second time. Currently the monthly trend can be drawn in through the peaks of January 2013, September 2014 and this current month. Price from here can either break the current trend line or continue the long term down trend.
The weekly chart shows a technical symmetrical continuation triangle (see chart). Watch for the .77230 level on the D1 chart. A close above this level could push prices to a new daily high. Essentially when price approaches either side of the triangle watch for volume expansion to look for conviction of the break.
I remain Bearish on the AUD and would be looking for a short signal this week potentially a close below 200 MA on the 4H chart.
The pound crashed though out last week and I did mention in a post 2 weeks ago key levels to watch @ 1.31815. I favored the upside but as soon as the pound broke the 4H 200 SMA priced crashed as expected and was a nice short entry.
The pound is now nested on support at 1.29700. It failed to close below support on the 4H and finished last week with a bullish pinbar indicating a good long entry point.
I still favor the upside to the pound and take a buy on the dips approach and at current levels is a good time to enter a long. We could see the pound back up to 1.32 during the week.
Currently I am still holding longs on E/A . Current set up still valid from technical analysis done on 10th of September inverse head and shoulders set up . I have gone long at 1.47046 and targeting 1.51800 – 1.52500 levels. Volume confirms buyers are more committed than sellers.
Price was rejected off the 200 SMA on the 4h chart.
Just remember Risk Management is king any questions please post in the comments section. 🙂