The 1st week of the year sparked a big sell off, of the US Dollar and rumor has it that Chinese and Mexican central banks dumped US dollars to stabilize their currencies. The Mexican Central bank sold at least 1 billion US dollars last week. When we take a look at the charts the US Dollar index was at 14 year highs and right at a major support/resistance level.
The US dollar sold right back to current trend line support which it held nicely. This was well expected at some point, and was the most likely place for further long entries.
We now should expect the US Dollar to rally up and make a higher high if we wish to see trend continuation to new levels. Next level of resistance in sight is 105.00 to 108.00. We can verify this with a Fibonacci retracement tool taken from the last peak to pull back level, target at 161.8%.
US Dollar index monthly chart
The Aussie has had a nice pullback from the major sell off at .77600. Price was rejected off the trend-line resistance and has formed a bearish engulfing 4H candle. We now look for the Aussie to make a low at .7020. This level was a support level back in November 2015.
Price has remained under long term monthly support which it broke late December 2106. Price had tried to make an attempt to run up to the underside of the trend support but has failed and looking now to further downside potential.
AUD/USD 4H chart
AUD/USD daily chart
AUD/USD monthly chart
The Kiwi like wise with the Aussie is looking for further moves to the south as a rejection of key resistance levels. Price is now remaining under .70 and the last day candle on the 6th of January is an outside engulfing bar.
We would now look to shorting this pair to around .68300 and .66500 former resistance levels.
NZD/USD Daily chart
Trade safe 🙂
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